Meta wants in on prediction markets mania (again)

TL;DR: Meta is reportedly working on a standalone prediction markets app in a bid to get in on the bet-on-everything craze that started with Polymarket and Kalshi, according to a New York Times report. It’s the kind of move we’ve seen from Meta before—chasing (or re-chasing) what was popularized by others—but comes as the company faces lawsuits accusing it of trying to addict users.

What happened: Internally called Arena, the smartphone app reportedly uses a video game-like points system instead of money—though real funds could come into play later. It’s a gamified attempt to lasso new users at a moment when prediction market fever is everywhere. (Though Meta’s tried its hand at pursuing this particular market before, launching an app called Forecast in 2020 that shut down two years later.)

Insiders described Arena as “experimental but a top priority” for the company, per the NYT, but noted that it’s possible the app might never be released.

Copying homework: Arriving late is par for the course for Meta, which has shown a pattern of jumping on trends after competitors prove there’s a market for it. A brief recap of all the times Meta made us say, “Wait, haven’t we seen this before?”:

• Instagram Stories (2016), which made main grids everywhere something of a relic, was released long after Snapchat first came out with the feature in 2013.
• Facebook Dating (2019) joined in on the “swipe right to match” habit already popularized by Tinder starting in 2012.
• Reels (2020) was Meta’s answer to TikTok, which got us glued to short-form videos (at least ones that are longer than six seconds).
• Threads (2023) launched about half a year after Musk bought Twitter—which led to an exodus of users who didn’t like the new management and wanted an alternative. (That lasted about five seconds.)
• RIP. There were also many lesser-known Meta clones of platforms like Substack, Clubhouse, Slack, and even Nextdoor—all of which are no longer with us.

Is this even a good idea?: While Meta probably has the resources to launch a real rival to Kalshi and Polymarket, the timing of the Arena news comes right as Meta battles a slew of lawsuits around how addictive its apps are for children. And it’s already facing some pointed criticism from politicians.

Bottom line: With Arena (not yet) involving real money, Meta is showing that its top priority is developing gamified platforms that can dominate people’s attention—and hopefully expanding an empire of apps that around 3.6 billion people already use every day. —WK

Also at Meta…

• The company is reportedly being pressured to submit its AI models—the latest of which was released in April—to the “voluntary” review process President Donald Trump’s AI safety executive order recently established.
• Mark Zuckerberg reveals his “perfect lunch” and why he doesn’t regret changing the company’s name in a new Q&A.