OpenAI can’t solve this equation

TL;DR: It’s a no good, very bad week to be Altman. Not only is he going to trial against his ultimate tech frenemy, but a new report indicates OpenAI may be in deeper trouble than it’s let on after it missed key revenue and user targets over the past few months. The whole thing is calling its upcoming IPO into question.

What happened: Anonymous sources told the Wall Street Journal that OpenAI fell short of meaningful internal company goals, including its ambition for ChatGPT to hit 1 billion users by the end of 2025. It also missed key revenue targets and saw high user “defection” (presumably as more people jumped ship to competitors like Anthropic).

According to the WSJ, OpenAI’s CFO Sarah Friar has privately warned employees that the company may not be able to pay its future compute bills. Notable, given that OpenAI's aggressive spend on compute and data centers could burn through its recent $122 billion raise within three years.

Budgetmaxxing: Now, OpenAI's board is taking a microscope to the company's outsized spending habits. (Reminder: Altman has committed the company to spend about $600 billion on compute by 2030). Friar is also trying to put him on a tighter leash, a move that’s not likely to sit well with Altman. Though, the two are doing their best to tamp down rumors of internal discord, issuing a joint statement dismissing reports of pullback as “ridiculous.” For those keeping score, this is the second joint statement in just one month that insists the two execs are getting along just fine.

Not just L’s: Before you pour one out for OpenAI, the company did release the impressive ChatGPT 5.5 model last week, and its Codex agent seems to be gaining some traction. OpenAI also reportedly noted in a recent investor memo that it has been able to secure more compute than main rival Anthropic. (Whispers: But that assumes the company can afford it.)

Is the IPO in the room with us?: OpenAI has been burning cash while sprinting toward what could be one of the biggest IPOs ever. Friar, who seems to be the front-runner for Altman’s Most Contentious Coworker award, has continued to express doubts on whether an end-of-year IPO is realistic, which has been Altman’s preferred timeline.

Bottom line: Considering the company has already missed key benchmarks, spent an ungodly amount of cash, and has its own CFO pumping the brakes on the IPO timeline, it may be a minute before Altman actually gets to hear that opening bell. —AC

Also related to OpenAI:

• The company announced it’s shaking up its relationship with Microsoft.
• These tech stocks took a hit today after the WSJ’s OpenAI report dropped.
• That OpenAI gadget it’s been waxing poetic about? It could be a phone.