As the Trump administration falters on decarbonization, can the international community pick up the slack?

In the 10 years since the Paris Agreement was adopted, both Trump administrations and the private sector have treated the accord as a living document.

The US pulled out of the emissions reduction agreement in 2017, rejoined in 2021 under President Biden, and exited yet again in 2025. International courts have also attempted to widen the scope of the accord—in particular, a Dutch court ruled in 2021 that oil giant Shell needed to significantly reduce its emissions. Shell was able to reverse that ruling on an appeal last year.

Amid so much volatility, analysts and data suggest that perhaps the best decarbonization policies aren’t those that emphasize lowering emissions, but those that focus on the free market and supplying rising energy demand.

Fits and starts: BloombergNEF’s report on US clean energy markets in the second half of 2025 contained some jarring information about solar and battery markets: There were no new investments in solar or battery supply chain either during the second or third quarters of 2025. What’s more, deploying solar and wind power has gotten more expensive, and not just because clean energy tax credits are being phased out. Tariffs, labor shortages, and permitting and interconnection delays have increased capital expenditures for wind and solar projects, thereby increasing their levelized cost of electricity across most of the US.

But rising energy demand continues to create opportunities for clean energy to shine—and it’s proven it can meet increasing demand, especially as gas turbine supply chain issues persist, the report noted.

“Long-term momentum remains strong, however, even after tax credits are phased out, as an AI-fueled power demand surge and strong economics support US wind, solar, and storage buildout,” the report states, even though “permitting and interconnection delays alongside policy uncertainty have tempered growth momentum and stretched project timelines.”

All in all, BloombergNEF estimated that the clean energy policy hurdles introduced by Trump’s so-called One Big Beautiful Bill Act would account for a 21% reduction in future renewable capacity over the next 10 years.

Decarbonization woes: Even though the research firm reported that drop was lower than analysts initially expected, fewer future renewables means more carbon emissions from the US power sector.

And the US isn’t alone in this conundrum. David Shepheard, a partner with Baringa, told Tech Brew that the world isn’t decarbonizing fast enough to meet the standards of agreements like the Paris Accord, because of political, economic, and physical obstacles.

“What’s becoming more expensive is not the power generation [or] the electrons themselves, but more the delivery infrastructure and the backup power resources, battery storage, etc., that you need to balance it out,” Shepheard said.

Additionally, AI has thrown a curveball at governments trying to curtail emissions by driving up energy demand from data centers.

With that in mind, Shepheard said that if other countries want to make gains on decarbonization, they should emulate Texas, which is larger than many nations. In the Lone Star State, a law that went into effect earlier this year fast-tracks solar and storage permitting, and solar and wind energy powered almost 40% of Texas’ electricity demand in 2025.

“[Texas is] where a lot of the new stuff is going to get built. I like the free-market economics and permitting reform that they’ve done there,” Shepheard said. “Absent climate commitments, but still getting us to the same place.”

Tom Harper, a Baringa energy markets analyst, also told Tech Brew that focusing on the economic gains of clean energy and lower-carbon sources like natural gas is “a tactic of...making your country look attractive for low-carb capital.”

“How do we manage the tension between wanting to do the right thing for the climate and maintaining our economy and competitive position in whatever market you’re playing in?” Harper said. “Governments around the world need to come up with that careful balance.”