If the path to EV adoption were a highway, China would be zooming along in the fast lane, Europe would be trucking along at a respectable pace—and the US would be getting passed.
That’s one of the takeaways from EY’s latest Mobility Lens Forecaster, which predicts a slower trajectory on mass EV adoption in the US because of federal policy changes, affordability issues, and gaps in charging infrastructure.
The report underscores the risks of the US EV sector falling behind competitors in China and Europe. It also emphasizes that, though the road to full electrification may be bumpy, the world will one day get there.
“Electrification is the future…I think there’s a lot of questions out there as to whether or not people will fully adapt,” George Lenyo, EY Americas automotive leader, told Tech Brew. “The Mobility Lens Forecast really says, ‘Yes, they will,’ it’s just going to take longer than maybe people would have anticipated.”
Here’s what EY predicts is in store for the US market:
- The timeline for battery-electric vehicles reaching 50% of new-vehicle sales has shifted from 2034 to 2039.
- Alternative scenarios show BEVs reaching 50% of the market as early as 2036 or as late as 2042.
- A sales “surge” is expected this year as buyers get ahead of the expiration of EV tax credits under President Donald Trump’s so-called One Big Beautiful Bill, followed by a decrease in 2026–2027.
- Hybrid vehicle sales could peak at 34% of new-vehicle sales in 2034.
- And by 2050, the forecast calls for BEVs to make up more than 95% of the market.
In China, meanwhile, EY forecasts that BEVs will make up more than half of new light-vehicle sales by 2033, “driven by lower costs and supportive policies” such as new vehicle emission standards—underscoring that the country “is pulling ahead in the global shift to EVs.” BEV adoption is expected to slow in Europe through 2027, but then to exceed 50% market share by 2032.
Keep up with the innovative tech transforming business
Tech Brew keeps business leaders up-to-date on the latest innovations, automation advances, policy shifts, and more, so they can make informed decisions about tech.
“The EV transition is advancing—but unevenly,” Constantin Gall, EY global aerospace, defense, and mobility leader, said in a statement. “The US faces policy uncertainty, high costs, and infrastructure gaps.”
Speed bumps: Lenyo pointed to tariffs and other policy changes, including the sunsetting this month of the EV tax incentives, as factors that explain the expected slowdown in US EV sales growth. The report also suggests that, starting in 2026, the price gap between BEVs and internal combustion engine vehicles could widen.
“The risk for the US is, how far do we fall behind because of these constraints that have been put upon them recently to deal with. I think that the OEMs are very resilient,” Lenyo said.
“They have to keep one foot in today and constantly be looking at [the] future of full electrification,” he added, “and balancing that investment accordingly.”
For adoption rates in the US to catch up with Europe and China, Lenyo said that affordability and infrastructure will need to improve, as will consumer education. The US EV charging sector is making progress on building more public fast chargers with the amenities that consumers are looking for, but there’s more work to be done.
“The big takeaway: Electrification is the future,” Lenyo said. “We see all major sections of the world, whether it’s the US, Europe, or China, getting there, roughly, by 2050. But the pace of that, specifically in the US, has slowed.”